You know what stinks worse than Infinium Labs’ stock price? This week’s original column got spiked. And no, it wasn’t spiked because of inappropriate content or anything like that. It got spiked because Microsoft can’t figure out how to make enough product in time for its own launch.
Let me explain. Now, I’m sure you’ve seen a few columnists and blogs out there who did a write-up of what it was like to be in the lines for the Xbox 360 launch at midnight. Well, originally, I was planning on doing something similar. Of course, given that I’m not that into the Gonzo school of journalism (or its poor cousin, New Games Journalism), I wasn’t going to write about my own experiences in line. Besides, given that it’s guaranteed to have at most one good launch title (like nearly every other console launch in history), I really don’t see the purpose of owning this or any console at launch. No, instead I was going to look into the insanity, on all levels, that surrounds console launches these days, from the people lined up in advance to the store employees trying to cope while stealing furtive looks at the machines in back.
I had everything set up, and I was even invited to one midnight launch in particular: the Gamestop at the Meadow Glen Mall in Medford, Massachusetts. Especially given how the employees there were cool enough to invite me and chat a bit about what they were doing for preparation, I was all ready to walk on over and throw back video gaming stories with them while watching the mad hordes line up for the chance to play Kameo and Perfect Dark Zero first.
This fell apart, though, and I was notified why when I stopped by a week before to do a final check and pick up Mario Kart DS. The store had anticipated a shipment of 42 Xbox 360s, and had naturally taken even more preorders than that. We were all prepared for a rollicking good time of geekiness. However, the official word came in, and the order was ratcheted down to a scant 14 – a third of what was originally promised. Because there were going to be so few, Gamestop wanted to avoid potential riots (which, given how cool those clerks are, would have been misplaced aggression in the highest order) and thus decided to cancel the midnight event.
Now, putting aside the fact that I like the guys at the Medford Gamestop, I couldn’t blame them at all for canceling. It really wouldn’t be fair to any gamer looking for the new console to find out that one in three (probably fewer, considering the number of preorders, presuming they all showed up) would be the only ones having their preorders filled. But it's not like the management didn’t try to get as many 360s as they possibly could. And it’s not like this particular Gamestop was an isolated incident – there were reports all across the nation of places getting many fewer consoles than originally forecast. I know companies often love to talk up preorder numbers as actual sales numbers (witness how many games “go gold,” presuming some number of sales PR agencies don’t disclose, before official release). However, I want to know – how many Xbox 360s actually shipped to eager video gamers in North America?
Of course, the 360 launch botch is hardly an isolated incident of console launch failure. The Incredible Shrinking PS2 Launch Numbers was a veritable game back in 2000 – I knew plenty of people making joke bets (and probably some real ones) over how many would finally be ready for the North American launch. Numbers were short for the Genesis, the Super Nintendo, the N64 (oh, irony of ironies there), and the Dreamcast as well. Granted, not as ridiculously short as they were for the PS2 and the Xbox 360, but still noticeably short. People in some locations had to fight to get the PSP when it came out, and I know many are already anticipating such a crunch for the Playstation 3 next year as well.
Now, I know this has led to a lot of people theorizing that Microsoft (as other console manufacturers have done beforehand, according to the theory) is artificially scaling back the number of consoles shipped to drive up demand to a ridiculous amount. Now, this does seem patently ridiculous, as short-charging on initial shipments is a good way to let consumers have second thoughts. And to be honest, given the reports of console crashes and overheats (thanks, Joystiq), I bet more than one consumer that was previously enthused about Microsoft’s latest console offering is a bit more reticent now. Not only that, but when your business model involves reaching as many homes as possible, intentionally limiting your initial release, which suppresses word-of-mouth in addition to promotion of second thoughts as noted above, shorting your initial release is a very risky proposition.
I’m going to have to go with Occam’s Razor, and believe that the most likely answer is the correct one. In this case, the most likely answer is the one constant in all affairs, human stupidity. Now, the most immediate case in point would be being unable to have all the needed parts produced quickly enough. Which, personally, doesn’t quite wash with me. Microsoft is already reportedly taking a $150 hit on the console (once you factor in the cost of parts vs. how much of the selling price is kept by the store), and they showed with the estimated $4 billion they lost on the original Xbox (not quite federal deficit levels, but getting there). You mean to tell me they couldn’t spare extra cash to motivate the chip manufacturers to drop other orders and focus on making the 360? If you told me some other company couldn’t, maybe I could buy it. But Microsoft couldn’t?
However, I think that Microsoft was really stupid in the first place by being so insistent on launching the console right now. I know, holiday rush and all that garbage. Moreover, they wanted to get the jump on Sony, believing that the Playstation 2’s sales dominance existed because it was launched earlier. Because, of course, it really helped being the first console launched in this generation – oh, sorry, that was the Dreamcast. And we all saw how much it mattered that Sega’s last console came out first. Not only that, but Sony was hammered for short supply, too. Plus, given the delays in both the Playstation 3 and the Revolution, Microsoft could have waited a few more months to make enough consoles for everyone (or at least close to the predicted launch demand) and still have a jump on the other console manufacturers.
It’s stupid business, but that’s hardly new for the console video game market. It’s like each generation, companies are insisting on fighting the last round of the console wars. Of course, this is really just hurting themselves, as they continue to make dumb mistakes in the name of fixing past dumb mistakes. I’m not asking for much. Just that companies figure out what they’re doing, and as much as they can about their competition, so that they can succeed. That way, when I next go into Gamestop, they don’t have to tell me that an event I was going to cover gets cancelled, and gamers can actually get the console they were desperately hoping for.
